The 2016 presidential elections have already been a whirlwind of hate, criticism, and different opinions. But after the dust settles, where will we be?
Let’s start with the Nominees. It is undisputed that Clinton, after being cleared of indictment, will be the Democratic candidate. The Republicans only have Trump to compete with Clinton’s current numbers, so he will, undoubtedly, be the Republican nominee.
But who will be president? That question’s hung over every election since Washington completed his first two terms in office, and there’s no way for us to have a definitive answer until the polling results come back. However, we can look at early polls and expert opinions to give us an indication on what to expect.
According to a recent study done by USA Today and Suffolk University, Clinton is leading Trump by 5 points. While this isn’t a dramatic lead, it indicates that there are quite a few people who disagree with the aggressive Republican’s philosophy. Trump’s phenomenal numbers from the Republican Primary have essentially disappeared, knocking him off of his high horse and forcing him to give his voters real reasons to vote for him. Clinton’s campaign managers expect her numbers to increase even more because her indictment charge has been lifted, which might put Trump even further behind her.
For the Republican party, this is bad news. Trump stole away all of the attention during the primary campaign trail by being bold and outspoken, which took the conservative vote by storm. Trump initially gained his following from his outrageous temper and his bad attitude, as seen in the Republican debate with Megyn Kelly. By those illicit remarks, he won over a group of people who were mad at the current way that America was being run, and called for drastic change. (i.e. building a wall and having Mexico pay for it.) Things like that are how Trump gained recognition and popularity in the beginning of the campaign trail, but the reality of Trump winning is causing him to make changes in how he thinks and acts. Now that the general election is edging closer, many viable Republican candidates have been pushed out by Trump’s style leaving the Republican party very few choices in nominees. His two largest Republican opponents, Kasich and Cruz, dropped out over the past few months as well. Essentially, the Republican Party is stuck with Trump and there’s not much they can do about. There are third party options, however, one being Gary Johnson. According to a poll done by Pew Research Center, Johnson actually polled 1% higher than Trump when it came to voters aged 18 to 29. Clinton still took the lead, with 47% of the young vote, but the two Republicans certainly may have a battle when it comes to becoming the Republican Nominee. Coming away from mainstream parties, Jill Stein, a Green Party candidate, also scored reasonable numbers when it came to Millennial votes. According to a poll done by Quinnipiac University, her numbers (10%) combined with Johnson’s numbers (12%) gave another 1% lead over Trump (21%). While these numbers certainly aren’t game-changers right now, they could snowball and bring voters away from the two standard options. After comparing polls from Fox News, USA Today, and the two aforementioned research teams, Johnson has an average of 17% of the voters, while Trump has an average of 25%. It may be a large gap, but it’s certainly something to keep an eye on.
My guess is as good as anyone else’s when it comes to who will win, and all we can really do at this point is speculate. Will the voters sway towards the outspoken, rough Republican candidate, or the Democratic candidate who was just under investigation by the FBI? According to Nate Silver, a popular statistician who properly guessed that Obama would win the 2012 election, Hillary Clinton has an 80% chance of winning the presidency. I don’t have the knowledge to compete with his numbers, but I conclude that there’s a 100% chance he’ll have some Tweets thrown his way by Mr. Trump sometime in the next few months.
Anderson is a contributor for The Millennial Times.